BRIEF
The Recap Arrives After The Trade Is Over
PrediXmarkets reads three signals every weekday morning before the market opens: where prediction-market traders are putting real cash, what futures markets are pricing, and what Wall Street analysts are saying. When the three disagree, that disagreement is the trade.
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Every weekday before 9:30 a.m. ET
Three Places The Smart Money Shows Its Hand
Polymarket
Where traders bet real cash on news outcomes. The number is what they actually believe.
CME Features
Where capital prices the next move. Real money sets the level.
Analyst Consensus
What CNBC and the WSJ are quoting. Sometimes right, sometimes a week late.
What CNBC and the WSJ are quoting. Sometimes right, sometimes a week late.
"When the three agree, you have a high-conviction read. When they disagree, that disagreement is the trade."
From a Recent Issue
Polymarket prices a US-Iran nuclear deal at 21% by May 31, 38% by June 30, and 75% by December 31.
The crowd thinks the deal is happening. It just thinks the deal is not happening soon. The 22 days between May 31 and June 30 carry a 17-point swing.
If you own anything tied to oil, defense, or Treasury yields in your IRA, that 17-point swing is the trade.
— PrediXmarkets, May 9, 2026
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